Missoula Market Report: October 2026. I Called It 3 for 3.

Last month I made three calls about what Missoula’s October numbers would show. All three landed. Here’s how they held up, what the numbers say about the market now, and what I expect in November.

These are all Missoula homes: single-family, condos and townhomes.

Grading last month’s calls

My call for October	What happened	Result
75 to 90 closings	96 closings	Beat it
Sellers get 97% to 98% of list price	97.2%	Right on
Median price between $522,000 and $578,000	$558,360	Right on

I’ll take credit on all three.

The real headline

The median sale price of a Missoula home was $558,360 in October, up 6.1% from $526,484 in October 2025. That’s the middle price of the 96 homes that closed in the month, single-family, condos and townhomes together. Half sold for more and half for less, so it tracks what a typical home sold for, not what any one home gained in value.

Homes also sold faster. The typical home took 59 days from listing to closing, down from 78 last October.

Single-family homes ended the month with 3.7 months of supply, down from 3.8 in September. Under about 4 months tends to favor sellers, so this is still a sellers’ market overall. But it depends a lot on your price range.

It depends on your price

Like last month, the overall numbers hide what’s going on underneath. Over the 12 months to October:

• $400,000 to $500,000 is the tightest part of the market, with 2.2 months of supply. Homes from $400,000 to $600,000 made up 45% of all sales. If you’re shopping here, expect competition.
• At $1 million and up, there are 11 months of supply. That favors buyers, and three out of four homes from $750,000 to $1 million sold below their first asking price. If you’re buying up there, you have room to negotiate.

Rates and your payment

Mortgage rates bounced around all month. The 30-year average in Freddie Mac’s weekly survey hit 7.40% in mid-October, then eased to 7.24% by the end of the month. That’s still about a full point higher than a year ago.

That gap is real money. On a typical Missoula home, a point higher rate is roughly $350 a month more in payment, the same gap I talked about last month.

Last month’s 2018 comparison

In September I noticed the market looked a lot like September 2018: similar inventory, similar sale-to-list prices, similar days on market. I said that if the pattern held, inventory would ease and sellers would keep getting 97% to 98% of list price.

Inventory did ease, and sellers got 97.2%, a touch below the 2018 track. The big difference is rates: about 7.3% today against roughly 5% back then. The pattern is rhyming, but it isn’t repeating.

How much negotiating is happening

Two out of three Missoula homes (65%) sold below their first asking price over the past 12 months. And 47.5% of sales included seller concessions, like help with closing costs, with a median of about $8,000.

In plain English: the median price is holding, but most buyers are getting something, either a lower price, help at closing, or both.

What I’d do right now

Buying over $1 million: negotiate hard. With 11 months of supply, you have leverage.

Buying under $600,000: get your pre-approval done before you start looking. The median is 59 days, but well-priced homes in this range still sell fast. Shop the payment, not just the price, and talk to your lender about what you can comfortably afford each month.

Selling: price it right on day one. 65% of homes sold below their first price. Under $500,000, the low supply is to your advantage if you use it. Over $750,000, expect a longer timeline and more back-and-forth.

My calls for November

Fewer homes came on the market in October than a year ago, and there were 10% fewer homes for sale at month-end, 355 against 395. That should keep prices firm through the winter.

My rule of thumb: when single-family supply is above about 3.6 months, sellers get a little less than list price. It’s at 3.7. So for November, I’m calling:

1. Sellers get 97% to 98% of the original list price.
2. 70 to 85 closings, as things slow down for the season.

Check back next month and we’ll see if I got them right.

See the full numbers

Every town, every home type and ten years of history are on the Market Reports page. If winter buying is on your mind, read Why Winter Is the Best Time to Buy in Missoula.

Thinking about selling? Call or text me at 406-531-1519, and I’ll tell you what your home would really sell for.